Markets rally over half percent despite global headwinds as RBI policy looms 

Markets closed firmly higher on Monday, with the Nifty 50 gaining 157.40 points or 0.64 per cent to settle at 24,722.75, while the Sensex advanced 418.81 points or 0.52 per cent to close at 81,018.72, shrugging off weak global cues ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy announcement later this week.

The benchmark indices opened on a positive note despite overnight weakness in US markets, with the Nifty starting at 24,596.05 against its previous close of 24,565.35, and the Sensex opening at 80,765.83 compared to Friday’s close of 80,599.91. The indices maintained their upward trajectory throughout the session, with the Nifty briefly touching an intraday low of 24,554 before rallying to a high of 24,722.

“Today, the benchmark indices witnessed a promising pullback rally,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities. “Among sectors, almost all the major sectoral indices traded in positive territory, but the Metal and Defence indices outperformed, rallying over 2.5 per cent.”

Defence and metal stocks emerged as the top performers, gaining over 2 per cent, while financial, realty, auto and IT indexes were up over 1.5 per cent. The broader markets also participated in the rally, with the Nifty Midcap 100 surging 795.20 points or 1.40 per cent to 57,432.35, while the Nifty Next 50 gained 724.70 points or 1.09 per cent to 66,917.50.

Hero MotoCorp led the gainers on the Nifty 50, surging 5.18 per cent to close at ₹4,535.00, followed by Tata Steel which jumped 4.08 per cent to ₹159.25. Adani Ports gained 3.56 per cent to ₹1,395.00, while Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) advanced 3.37 per cent to ₹389.90 and JSW Steel rose 2.86 per cent to ₹1,057.20.

On the losing side, Power Grid Corporation declined 1.12 per cent to ₹288.00, HDFC Bank dropped 0.88 per cent to ₹1,994.40, ONGC fell 0.70 per cent to ₹235.13, ICICI Bank shed 0.58 per cent to ₹1,463.10 and Apollo Hospitals slipped 0.58 per cent to ₹7,309.00.

Market breadth remained positive with 2,286 stocks advancing against 1,847 declining on the BSE, where 4,307 stocks were traded. Notably, 124 stocks hit their 52-week high while 125 touched their 52-week low, with 11 stocks in upper circuit and 9 in lower circuit.

“The domestic equity market edged higher, supported by strong performance in the metal and auto sectors,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited. “A weakening US dollar, along with robust monthly auto sales and encouraging quarterly results from leading automakers, helped renew investor interest in these sectors.”

The currency markets witnessed continued pressure on the rupee, which weakened to close at 87.68 against the dollar after briefly opening stronger at 87.20. “Rupee weakness continued, ending at 87.68 after a brief gap-up opening at 87.20. Despite minor strength in the dollar index, the key drag remains the 25 per cent tariff imposed by the US,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities.

Gold prices surged significantly, rising by ₹750 to ₹1,00,550, driven by rupee weakness and disappointing US Non-Farm Payroll data. “Gold prices traded very strong with a sharp rise of ₹750 at ₹1,00,550, driven by a weak rupee and disappointing US Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday,” Trivedi noted.

The weak US employment data, which showed only 73,000 jobs added in July against expectations of 1,04,000, has intensified speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. “Rising unemployment and slower job creation in the US have reinforced expectations of a potential FED rate cut,” Nair observed.

From a technical perspective, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. “Following a positive start, the index remained in the green throughout the day. On the hourly chart, it has reclaimed the 21EMA, indicating improving sentiment,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

“We are of the view that, in the short term, the market’s texture is weak but oversold; hence, a sharp technical bounce back is not ruled out from the current levels,” Chouhan added, setting key support levels at 24,550/80,600 and 24,500/80,500, while resistance is expected at 24,850-24,950/81,500-81,800.

Looking ahead, market participants are now focusing on the RBI’s monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday, with expectations that the central bank will maintain rates to counter potential risks from US tariffs. “Markets now await the RBI’s monetary policy on Wednesday, which is expected to drive heightened volatility,” Trivedi said, projecting the rupee to trade within 87.25 to 88.00 in the near term.

Published on August 4, 2025

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